Why predicting primary pupil progress is like forecasting the weather for next year

TES News – Previously, the starting point for the primary value-added measures was the levels children were given in reading, writing and maths at age 7. Four years later, where will those children be? They were expected to have made two levels of progress – which around 90 per cent managed …. the new baseline test for primaries will stretch the forecast further by starting with maths, language and literacy at age 4.

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